Most professionals and families in the autism community would agree that over the past 30 years, ABA has served autistic individuals well, providing many of the skills and supports necessary to improve functioning and enable individuals to participate more fully at school and within family systems. So inevitably, it is time to evolve.

All companies and industries evolve or wither. Forces of change—internal and external—demand new approaches, innovative solutions, or a new direction. Successful companies and industries are always thinking about what is next.

Businesses generally follow an S-curve in their growth. After a period of investment and company-building, there is rapid revenue growth as the marketplace becomes aware of the business’s products and services and recognizes its relevance. Then the market catches up and growth stagnates unless the company innovates. When it does, it reaps the benefit of accelerated growth again.

I believe the autism services industry is at the inflection point of the S-curve. With great benefit to many thousands of people with autism spectrum disorders, ABA services are considered by most researchers, payors, legislators, and service providers to be the gold standard of treatment. In the process, and with the heightened demand for intervention, the delivery of ABA services has transformed into an industry. With over 30 financial investments in autism companies last year alone, the industry is quickly reshaping as investors look to scale services, leverage technology, and improve infrastructure and processes. But storm clouds are gathering.

We face a growing population of autistic adults who lack the necessary skills to live independently and whose parents are aging, unable to care for them much longer. What’s more, a growing number of children with autism are coming of age, many of whom lack the skills necessary for independent living, finding and maintaining employment, and forming intimate relationships. If the goal of the autism services industry is to prepare individuals with autism to live their lives as successfully as possible, there is a great deal of room for improvement.

An external force is at work as well and could be the main catalyst for evolution: third-party payers. Absent a coherent set of outcomes from the industry itself, insurance companies are beginning to dictate the rules of conduct in autism services, even though many lack the in-depth knowledge and expertise to do so. The best interest of autistic individuals risks getting lost in the maelstrom.

If we look at our industry objectively, we see one driven by short-term outcomes and often narrow commercial interests, rather than one united by a desire to discover and invest in the approaches that result in the best long-term outcomes for the population we serve. A regrettable lack of data sharing reduces industry-wide knowledge. Furthermore, a lack of universal standards and common measurements of outcomes stymies innovation across the industry. Without those clearly-defined, measurable outcomes that serve the long-term needs of our clients, we’re left with payors developing often poorly-conceived, short-term outcome values that fail to support the programs needed for adults so they can function independently.

As an industry whose purpose is humanitarian, we have our work cut out for us. We can stagnate and wither on the S-curve, or as an industry, we can innovate through the present challenges and reach a new age of growth, both in scale and quality of service. Any well-intentioned person in this industry prefers the latter. So, the questions as we look towards the future of our industry are: how willing are we to reject misaligned commercial interests and resist the temptation of shortsighted results? Can we instead work together, share information, develop common outcomes, and improve the results for our clients?

If we’re going to do it, we have to do it now.

For more on the future of ABA and autism services, check out my book, Autism Matters.